New SC Poll: Trump, Carson, and Graham Down, Cruz, Rubio and Fiorina Up

October 2, 2015

RCP SC poll 10-2-2015

An interesting new Gravis poll of South Carolina shows quite a dramatic shift for several GOP presidential candidates from the last several polls taken in SC. It’s important to note that this is the first poll taken in SC since Scott Walker dropped out of the race, though he had only polled at 3-4% in the last three previous polls.

The new Gravis poll was taken from Sept 25-27th and shows:

Trump 29%

Carson 16%

Fiorina 11%

Cruz 8%

Rubio 8%

Bush 6%

Kasich 4%

Huckabee 3%

Graham 2%

Paul 1%

Christie 1%

Jindal 0%

While all other candidates have held basically steady from the last several polls, Trump, Carson and Graham have seen sharp drops, while Rubio, Fiorina and Cruz have seen sharp increases in their numbers.

As can been seen in the graph above from the Real Clear Politics poll average site, the last two previous SC polls taken in early and mid September showed almost identical results with Trump at 36 and 37%, Carson at 21% in both, Cruz at 6% in both, Fiorina at 3 and 4%, Rubio at 3 and 4%, Graham at 3 and 5%.  (It’s important to note that Real Clear Politics lists all credible polls as they are published, and also averages them into a current spread as per the above graphic.  So trends among the various polls can clearly be seen on the spread.)

When compared to the two previous polls, Trump has fallen from 36-37% to 29%, Carson from 21% to 16%, Graham has fallen from 3-5% down to 2%, Fiorina has jumped from 3-4% to 11%, Rubio has jumped from 3-4% to 8%, and Cruz has jumped from 6% to 8%.  The Gravis numbers are new highs in SC for Fiorina and Rubio, while Cruz is seeing his highest SC numbers since April just after he entered the race.

The SC Gravis poll shows quite a striking drop for Trump who had not polled below 30% in any of the five SC polls taken since the end of June.  The SC results are similar to national poling which shows Trump having peaked around 33% in early Sept, but now polling in the low to mid 20s in all subsequent polls.  As can bee seen in the latest Real Clear Politics graph below, Trump and Carson have seen a steady downward trend in national polling over the last weeks.

RCP graph 10-2-2015

Also interesting in the new SC Gravis poll is that Ohio Governor John Kasich is polling above SC native Senator Lindsey Graham, and Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas – Kasich 4%, Huckabee 3%, Graham 2%.  Graham peaked in polling around early June when he polled at 14%, but has seen a steady downward trend since.   Likewise, Huckabee was polling at 9% in early June but has seen a steady downward trend since.  Kasich however has held steady at 3-4% in every SC poll since he entered the race, so Graham and Huckabee have simply fallen under Kasich rather than Kasich rising above them.

Interestingly on the democrat side, Hillary Clinton dominates the field with 50%, compared to 19% for Joe Biden, and 13% for Bernie Sanders. Hillary has sharply fallen in most other states in recent months, and is losing to Sanders and or Biden in some states.


By: Javan Browder

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