On Tuesday Mitt Romney proved once again that he is the clear front runner. The clear front runner in the blue/liberal/democrat states that Obama won in 2008 that is.
Illinois is the state that Obama represented as a Senator. It’s the state that has seen no less than 4 of its former Governors sent to prision for corruption. It is the state of Chicago politics.
Speaking of Chicago, let’s not forget that Obama’s former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was elected as Mayor. Yes, Illinois, that’s the state Romney won yesterday. And Romney won it using a Chicago style of politics, outspending his opponent by a margin of 7-1, and overwhelming him with negative attack adds.
Let’s take a good look at the map here and go state by state over the 28 that have held their primaries/caucuses, and let’s see who is winning in the states that Obama won in 2008, and most likely will win most of in 2012. Then let’s see who is winning the actual conservative states that a Republican has to win in order to win in the general election.
I have listed states as either “blue”, “VERY blue, “red” or “VERY red.” States that are simply “blue” are states that voted blue- Obama in 2008, and most of them are generally considered democrat states. States that are simply “red” are states that voted red- McCain in 2008, and most of them are generally republican.
The states that are listed as “VERY blue” or “VERY red“ are states that always vote overwhelmingly blue/democrat, or red/republican each election cycle. Keep in mind that BLUE = LIBERAL and RED = CONSERVATIVE.
Iowa= VERY red state, winner- Santorum
New Hampshire= VERY blue state, winner- Romney
South Carolina=VERY red state, winner- Gingrich
Florida= blue state, winner- Romney
Maine= blue state, winner- Romney
Nevada= blue state, winner- Romney
Minnesota= blue state, winner- Santorum
Missouri= red state, winner- Santorum
Colorado= blue state, winner- Santorum
Michigan= blue state, winner- Romney
*Arizona= red state, winner- Romney
Washington= blue state, winner- Romney
Virginia= blue state, winner- Romney
Vermont= VERY blue state, winner- Romney
Georgia= VERY red state, winner- Gingrich
Ohio= blue state, winner- Romney
North Dakota= red state, winner- Santorum
Tennessee= red state, winner- Santorum
Massachusetts= VERY blue state, winner- Romney
Wyoming= red state, winner- Romney
Oklahoma= red state, winner- Santorum
Idaho= red state, winner- Romney
Alaska= red state, winner- Romney
Kansas= VERY red state, winner- Santorum
Mississippi= VERY red state, winner- Santorum
Alabama= VERY red state, winner- Santorum
Hawaii= VERY blue state, winner- Romney
Illinois= VERY blue state, winner- Romney
If my math is correct, the total from these 28 states is:
5 VERY blue and 9 blue states for a total of 14 blue states.
6 VERY red states and 8 red states for a total of 14 red states.
Romney has won 5 VERY blue states and 7 blue states, for a total of 12 blue states. But has only won 4 red states. *one of those red states he won was Arizona which is McCain’s home state, so it may have gone blue in 2008 had it not been McCain’s home state.
Santorum has won 4 VERY red states, and 4 red states, plus 2 blue states.
Gingrich has won 2 VERY red states.
Romney has won all the VERY blue states, while Santorum and Gingrich have won all the VERY red states.
This pattern is the same when broken down at the district/county/precinct level as well. In fact, Santorum has actually won substantially more counties than all the other candidates combined. That’s because Romney is only winning the highly populated progressive/liberal urban areas, while Santorum is winning the more conservative rural heartland of America.
The perfect example of this is Michigan where Romney basically only won the extremely liberal pro-union area of Detroit, while Santorum took the entire rest of the state. Look at Alabama and Mississppi, both VERY red states where nearly 3 quarters of the voters in each state voted for the “not-Romney” candidates.
So what’s the point in all this? Well, there are two points:
What does it say about Romney’s electability against Obama when he has proven to be utterly unelectable in the states that republicans win in the general elections? I’d say it proves that Romney will be totally unable to fire up the conservative base, and we may see many more red states turning blue in 2012 if we allow Romney to become the GOP nominee. Conversely, the opposite is true of Santorum since he is winning the republican/conservative “red” country .
The other thing is; what does it say about the conservatism of Romney and Santorum when Romney only wins in Obama country, and Santorum wins in conservative country? Who is the actual conservative? Who is more like Obama? (I will refrain from making an “Obamaneycare” comment here.) Who is less like Obama?
It seems that this pattern will continue to play out over the next several states at least. Santorum has strong leads in Louisiana and Texas which are both VERY red states with primaries coming up soon. Romney leads in the upcoming liberal democrat VERY blue (Obama) states like New York and Connecticut.
Something else to consider is that brand new polling shows Santorum faring much better than Romney in a head to head match up with Obama in the “4 core states” that the republican nominee must win if they are going to beat Obama. (OH, FL, VA, NC) Santorum leads Obama in these states by 48%-44% while Romney trails Obama by 46%-42%.
So to my fellow conservatives and republicans, I urge you to very carefully consider what it is that we are really voting for in the 2012 GOP primary contest? Ask yourselves if we really want our party to become like Obama in order to beat Obama? Ask yourselves if that is really a winning strategy, regardless of whether the end result would be to win the general election or not?…………
By: Javan Browder
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